Soaring costs and free-falling activity: road freight transport faces its worst quarter in 2026

The road freight transport sector in Spain is going through one of its most critical moments of the decade. Official data from the Ministry of Transport and Sustainable Mobility, published in mid-June, confirms what hauliers have been denouncing month after month: a 17.6% year-on-year increase in operating costs during the first quarter of 2026. The employers’ association Fenadismer did not hesitate to describe the situation as a “brutal increase in costs”, a scenario that has pushed the annual operating cost of a general cargo articulated vehicle up to €182,809. But what is most worrying is that this price hike has not been accompanied by a proportional increase in the prices received by hauliers, which have only risen by an average of 6.2%, squeezing margins to unsustainable levels.

Fuel has become the main protagonist of this crisis. Its weight in the cost structure of a lorry has gone from 27.5% to 36.2% in just one quarter, even surpassing the staff and subsistence allowance category. The price of diesel in the European Union escalated from €1.56 per litre at the end of 2025 to €1.96 at the close of the first quarter of 2026, an increase of 26% directly linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The president of Astic, José Luis Olivella, has warned that the surge in crude oil prices and uncertainty over the supply of AdBlue are generating additional pressure that is difficult to absorb for a sector already operating on very tight margins. It is no surprise that haulage associations have begun to consider pressure measures in response to what they regard as a critical situation.

But beyond fuel, there are other structural factors that are reshaping the sector. Digitalisation and the computerisation of logistics processes, far from being optional, have become a requirement for maintaining competitiveness. Transport companies are being forced to invest in fleet management systems, GPS tracking, electronic invoicing and digital platforms to meet new regulatory and customer demands. A recent study reveals that 76% of companies with fleets identify cost control as their main challenge for 2026, and technology is presented as an indispensable tool to achieve this, although it entails an initial outlay that not all SMEs in the sector can afford. This transformation, necessary to keep “in step with the development of the computerisation of commercial operations”, is creating a gap between large companies and small hauliers.

The reduction in the number of hauliers is another trend explaining the current tension. The sector has been suffering from a generational renewal crisis that has worsened in recent years. The tough working conditions, long periods away from home and constant cost pressures are discouraging young people from joining the profession. Added to this is the fact that 12.1% of driver positions remain vacant in the European Union, which reduces the sector’s operational capacity and raises staff costs, which have already increased by 5.6% annually. Fewer hauliers to move the same amount of cargo, in a context of rising costs, can only translate into more pressure on those who remain and an inevitable market concentration.

In this context of contraction, activity measured in tonne-kilometres fell by 3.1% in the first quarter, with particularly severe drops in national transport (-7.8%). Only intra-regional transport, i.e. short-distance haulage, shows positive signs with an increase of 6.5%, suggesting a shift in logistics patterns towards more local circuits. The paradox is that, despite this lower activity, costs continue to rise, trapping companies in a spiral from which it is very difficult to escape. Astic has described 2026 as a “hinge year”, a turning point in which the sector will have to decide its future between consolidation, the disappearance of weaker companies or a profound transformation of its business model.

The outlook for the rest of the year is no more encouraging. Forecasts indicate that fuel will continue to be the main driver of prices, and although a 3% growth in total transport volume is expected for 2026, driven by domestic demand, this growth will occur in an environment of constant pressure on costs and margins. The Government has approved a royal decree-law to link the revision of transport prices to the real cost of fuel, a measure that hauliers consider necessary but insufficient. Meanwhile, the sector continues to wait for structural solutions that address not only the price of fuel, but also digitalisation, the lack of generational renewal and the need for greater investment in infrastructure. The question that remains in the air is whether road freight transport in Spain, a fundamental pillar of the economy, will manage to overcome this perfect storm or whether, on the contrary, we will witness a radical reconfiguration of a sector that can no longer continue to operate as it has done until now.