Road freight transport in Spain faces 2026 with moderate growth but profitability at rock bottom

Slight increase in volumes compared to a weak 2025
Freight volumes so far in 2026 show a mixed evolution. Domestic transport has performed better than last year, driven by strong internal demand, while international flows have struggled to recover. Forecasts place Spanish market expansion at around 3.2%, which represents a significant advance compared to the timid evolution of 2025, a year that ended with a decline in road transport activity. This growth is mainly supported by sectors such as agriculture, industry and chemicals, and reinforces Spain as one of the leading logistics hubs in Europe, where it already accounts for nearly 14.5% of total EU road transport activity.

Experts anticipate a “hinge year” with margins under pressure
Major organisations and associations agree on labelling 2026 as a “hinge year” for the sector. Ramón Valdivia, secretary general of the employer association Astic, points out that “it is shaping up as a year of moderate but demanding growth due to strong competition and the trend of margin tightening that we have seen sustained for years”. Macroeconomic forecasts support this scenario, with Spanish GDP growth of 2.3%, well above the 1.2% of the eurozone, which especially benefits domestic transport while international transport suffers from lower demand from European partners.

The perfect storm: soaring fuel and risk of defaults
However, the sector is far from being in a bed of roses. The outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East at the end of February 2026 has caused the price of Brent to skyrocket, surpassing $100 per barrel in April, making diesel up to 20% more expensive across the European Union and causing a 62.3% price surge in Spain since the start of the conflict. This energy cost increase has hit an already strained cost structure, where fuel accounts for around 42% of total expenditure on an international route. Added to this pressure is an unprecedented liquidity crisis that is leading many carriers to halt their fleets despite high freight demand. As consultant Ricardo Lucientes explains, “road freight transport in Europe has ceased to be a logistics battle to become a high‑risk financial management”, with 35% of Spanish companies operating at maximum or high risk and a default rate of 5.2% on turnover. With net margins barely ranging between 2% and 4%, a single default can wipe out the profit of an entire month’s work – a situation many professionals consider unsustainable.

Government measures and market adjustments
In response to this situation, the government approved Royal Decree‑Law 9/2026 on 14 April, establishing support measures for the sector, including the obligation to review contracts if fuel rises by more than 5%. At the same time, the market is reacting with a much stricter selection of routes due to the risk of default and with an increase in transport contract rates during the first quarter.

An uncertain horizon between opportunities and challenges
Despite the dark clouds, the sector retains a faint glimmer of hope. The European Union would enter 2026 in a context of moderate economic recovery, with EU GDP growth of 1.4% which, although modest, could gradually improve throughout the year. Digitalisation of fleets and investments in sustainability are emerging as the major levers of transformation to gain efficiency in an environment of shrinking margins. But the big question remains whether this perfect storm of soaring costs and geopolitical uncertainty will end up sinking many SMEs in the sector or, on the contrary, accelerate the necessary consolidation and modernisation of road transport in Spain. In any case, the professionals behind the wheel and logistics companies face a challenging year ahead, but also the obligation to reinvent themselves if they want to survive the storm.