Hispanic-German Commercial Relations: From Resilience to Strategic Redefinition

The commercial relationship between Spain and Germany, traditionally a pillar of European economic stability, has undergone an intense phase of transformation in recent years, marked by global shocks and strategic reconfiguration.
If the decade began with the severe test of the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, and was later shaken by the consequences of the war in Ukraine, the year 2025 has emerged as a critical exercise in adaptation and the search for new certainties.
Far from weakening, the bilateral link has demonstrated remarkable resilience, underpinned by deep interdependence: Germany remains Spain’s primary customer (absorbing around 10% of its exports) and its second supplier, while Spain consolidates its position as a key strategic partner on Europe’s southern flank.

The year 2025 has been driven by two main vectors: industrial reconversion and the energy transition.
In a context of growing global competition and European relocation policies, German investments in Spain have pivoted towards high value-added sectors.
The automotive industry, the historical backbone of trade, is undergoing an accelerated metamorphosis, with strong investments in electrification and batteries, where the presence of Volkswagen (with its plants in Navarra and Sagunto) and BMW act as poles of attraction for a supplier ecosystem.
In parallel, Spain has consolidated its role as a crucial energy partner for Germany, not only through natural gas (with the Barcelona terminal as an alternative gateway to Russian gas), but, and above all, as a present and future exporter of renewable energies, especially green hydrogen, an area where technological and commercial collaboration has intensified notably.

However, the year has not been free of clouds and frictions. The economic slowdown in the eurozone, with Germany on the brink of recession for part of the year, has moderated demand for some Spanish consumer goods.
To this are added persistent structural trade imbalances (Spain maintains a chronic trade deficit with Germany) and competition in third markets, where companies from both countries compete with mid-to-high-range products.
Furthermore, persistent inflation and high energy and industrial costs in Germany have tested the competitiveness of integrated value chains, forcing both economies to optimize processes and seek efficiencies.

Outlook for 2026: Consolidation in the Green Transition and Competitive Challenges
The outlook for 2026 points to a consolidation of the strategic trends initiated, within a still uncertain framework. A deepening of collaboration in clean energy infrastructure and green technologies is expected, with concrete hydrogen projects that could begin to materialize. The electric vehicle industry and the digitalization of the logistics chain will continue to attract cross-investments. However, commercial growth could be moderate, weighed down by the fragile European situation and global competition. Spain’s ability to position itself as a hub for innovation and sustainable production, beyond being a supplier of renewable resources, will be key to rebalancing the scale and moving up the value chain relative to its giant partner.

In short, the Spain-Germany commercial relationship has matured beyond a simple exchange of goods for tourism and agri-food products.
In 2025, it has taken a firm step towards a strategic industrial and energy alliance for European autonomy.
The challenge for 2026 will be navigating macroeconomic uncertainty while maintaining investment momentum in the dual digital and green transition. The strength of the bilateral dialogue and the framework of the European Union will, once again, be the antidote to volatility and the basis for cooperation that seeks not only to exchange products, but to co-design the continent’s industrial future.